A special report issued just this last Monday by the National Resources Conservation Service noted that snowpack levels measured this winter across the state of Utah are among the lowest recorded since the SNOTEL measuring equipment was installed in 1980.
Utah’s water system is built around mountain snowpack as delayed storage.
Typically, snow falls in winter and it stays frozen. Then it melts gradually in spring and early summer and that slow release feeds streams, reservoirs, soil moisture, and groundwater.
This is why snowpack is often described by hydrologists as “Utah’s largest reservoir.”
So when winter is dry (REALLY dry!), like this one has been, the alarm a lot of us are feeling makes sense.
But stay with me.
What research shows is that water storage doesn’t only happen in snowpack. In fact, as my friend Alex told me recently, the timing of snow matters as much – or more – than snow totals.
He said late-season snow can matter more than early snow. I had no idea.
The Utah Division of Water Resources says that when snow is low or arrives late, several adaptive processes can still occur, often invisibly.
Snow that falls later in winter or early spring is often denser, closer to melt season, and less exposed to mid-winter sublimation (water loss straight to the air.)
This means a dry early winter does not automatically doom runoff if spring storms still materialize. UDWR repeatedly notes that April 1 snowpack is actually a stronger predictor than early-winter totals. That could be good news.
And, you guessed it, judging a season too early doesn’t just apply to snowpack.
Many of us get into situations where we assume the story is already written, and we end up letting February convince us it’s April.
Maybe we draw conclusions from incomplete data.
We mistake “this is how it is so far” for “this is how it is. Period.”
We rush to fix what might still be forming.
We decide something is a failure, a mistake, or a dead end when it may simply be unfinished.
We drop habits, conversations, relationships, or plans because they haven’t paid off yet.
We underestimate what might be happening beneath the surface.
Spring runoff, trust, clarity, confidence (many things!) are meant to come together later, not right away.
Some systems are just designed to respond late.
(Let’s hope our snowpack this year is one of them!)
I can’t wait to hear about how you’re not letting February convince you that it’s April. And if you need help letting the situation you’re in play out, I’d love to assist you.
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PS If you liked this post – or any others, I’d love you to pass me and my work on to a friend. They can find out much more about me here if they’re interested!
